http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/2007/11/elaine-meinel-2.html

Bond Insurers Are Going Bankrupt Now



November 3, 2007

Elaine Meinel Supkis


.......... stocks rose on FAKE news. The employment numbers are pure fiction.............Tier 3 assets which are those horrid little ABX-He babies, must be valued in real terms by January so I expect a flood of red ink to pour out of many slit wrists on Wall Street soon. And three major risk-insurers of these speculators and wild cat lenders are now going under rapidly. Time to visit not only these three but Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. The Saudis are getting razor-wielding mad over the weak dollar. And a news story just in: stock analyst, Meredith Whitney is blamed for all the bad news and people are sending her death threats! Wow.


From Reuters:

Credit derivative traders are valuing bond insurers Ambac Financial Group (ABK) and MBIA Inc (MBI) as deep junk credits, while their stock prices have also plunged on concerns the companies may need more capital to shore up their high ratings.
Credit default swaps on Ambac have surged to around 620 basis points, or $620,000 per year for five years to insure $10 million in debt, from 185 basis points a month ago, according to data provided by CMA DataVision.
Its shares have tumbled nearly 60 percent since the beginning of October, 41 percent this week alone.
Ambac and MBIA both reported third-quarter losses last week caused by their writing down the market value of their respective credit derivative portfolios, which are used to insure assets including residential mortgages against default.


This is a major failure. This is deep beneath the surface of the waters, like the Titanic ripping its hull underwater, these organizations we will visit tonight are similar: they are the hull of the banking system. They are the ones who are supposed to protect the banking system from failure and they are now failing, themselves. This is serious.


During the entire banking collase that became obvious after August 15th but started really at the end of February, 2007, we can see more and more clearly how this is evolving as time passes. I still remember February [not yet senile!] and back then, everyone thought that China caused the wobble that clearly showed many weaknesses in our economic system. I disagreed with that prognosis and I predicted that China and Japan would engage in a series of vicious tit-for-tat currency battles because China was angry that Japan was allowed to peg the dollar while China got no reward for raising the value of the yuan.


This battle has gotten even worse and during the time frame where China was strong-arming the yen from falling to 130 to the dollar up to 115 to the dollar, the world's banking system froze up and then collapsed! Odd, wasn't it, that both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of China were the only major banks NOT hit in August? I remarked on that and used that as proof, they were toying with each other's currencies and not playing the games that are roiling the other markets.


Indeed, as the central banks in Europe and America churn out massive amounts of money causing global inflation, China and Japan have massively increased their FOREX reserves this last three months! Which is the exact opposite of what the old British Empire, the US and Europe have been doing.


Knowing this background, it is time to look at the effects of this major banking collapse which is bigger, I think, than the previous 3 banking collapses I have seen in the past.


CDS traders warn of 'blood on streets'

Bond insurers, or monolines, were also hit hard.
"[These triple-A rated companies are] exposed to the crumbling housing market," said Gavan Nolan, an analyst at derivatives data provider Markit. "Investors in monolines will be waiting for the coming months of housing data with trepidation," Mr Nolan said. CDS on MBIA Insurance rocketed to a four-year high, of 345bp, CMA Datavision said.
Last week the insurer posted $36.6m net loss and halted its share buy-back programme. Contracts on the bond insurance unit of Ambac Financial climbed to a five-year high of 310bp. Gimme Credit, an independent research term, downgraded both MBIA and Ambac this week.


When the AAA rating is dropped, this means one has to pay a higher interest rate because one looks more and more like the bastard sons of Miz Risky, that wench, that wild female who sleeps around and parties all the time and who goes to Vegas at the drop of her panties, no one trusts Risky or her children! But all speculators love her to death. Insurance groups that are supposed to be hedging banks and lenders can't afford to look like Risky's kiddies, they have to appear sober and clean, not drunk and staggering about the place. But who is going to replace these organizations that messed up?


First, I would suggest they never had insured these CDOs and tranches in the first place. Like Moody's and others who also decided they wanted to play footsie with Risky, these guys threw caution to the winds and embraced an obvious old whore and kissed her and got the cooties. Yuck. Well, serves them right!


Market Oracle:

10's of billions of dollars of securities have been downgraded since the beginning of October and this will require that they be sold in a timely manner. Once those securities hit the markets we will know their true value, and it won't be pretty. The super SIV will quickly become an exercise in wishful thinking as their “high quality” paper becomes junk in the maelstrom of liquidation which increases every time a security is downgraded. The super SIV's whole reason for being was to prevent fire sales and price discovery. Some of the Triple AAA CDO's fell to 57 cents - aka Junk territory. More and more is slated to become so. Every sub index of elements (AAA, AA, A etc.) of the structured products has crashed since October 1. The carnage of losses is staggering!
Bond insurers Radian, Ambac and MBIA shares' are in freefall, not only from the projected losses from their insurance of CDO's and structured products, but state and municipal finances in the US are in freefall as well. Many Muni bond holders face BIG problems in the coming year. What will you do if a state or municipality goes bust and the insurance company guaranteeing their bonds does also? The real estate boom inflated their tax incomes and now is deflating them. I live in Chicago and they are angling to raise taxes 1 billion dollars, and it is no different in any other city or state in America . Soon you can add Europe to the list as the real estate BUBBLE is in a precarious position around the globe.


The attempt at passing off all of Risky's offspring to Japan and China have failed. I noted just one month ago, the exposure Asia has to these lousy CDOs, ABX-HEs, Sub-primate this and that, is quite marginal. Most of it is held right here in the US/EU/UK empire! The day dreams of dumping our debts into Asia's laps and then running off with Risky to have more booze and sex is not going to happen. Nor should we want this. Japan can't nuke us. China certainly can and will.


Anyway, it is time to get on our broomsticks and fly off to Amback, MBIA and Radian to see how they are handling this crisis.


Ambac's Press Release Page:

NEW YORK, October 10, 2007 -- Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:ABK) today announced the results of its third quarter fair value review of its outstanding credit derivative contracts. Ambac's estimate of the fair value or "mark-to-market" adjustment for its credit derivative portfolio at September 30, 2007 amounted to an unrealized loss of $743 million, pre-tax. The company expects to report a net loss per diluted share up to $3.50 in the third quarter. Earnings measures reported by research analysts are on an operating basis and exclude the net income impact of mark-to-market gains and losses on credit derivative contracts, as well as certain other items. The company expects to report positive operating earnings(1) per diluted share between $1.85 and $1.90 in the third quarter.
Commenting on the estimated result, Ambac Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Robert J. Genader, stated, "While this unrealized loss is disappointing, it is important to note that Ambac's credit derivative contracts are similar to our insurance policies in that neither is exposed to the liquidity risks that are typically embedded in standard derivative contracts." Mr. Genader added, "While the turmoil in the structured finance markets has resulted in this unfavorable unrealized mark-to-market for the quarter, we have observed significantly improved market conditions for the industry and I am encouraged by the recent increased interest in our core financial guaranty product. Moreover, I remain confident in our underwriting abilities, credit standards and the transactions we have insured."


That is their next to last communication. The ship is not sinking. They are bailing as fast as they can and they expect no more icebergs ahoy and if we see the glasses, dishes and silverware sliding off the tables in the diningroom, this is our imagination. After all, our own government assures us that the banking crisis was brief and no big deal and the cold water around our ankles is good for our health. Cheers!


From Ambac's financial page:

Estimated Third Quarter 2007
Net loss per diluted share ($3.50)
Effect of net security losses $5.35
Operating earnings per diluted share $1.85


A tiny bit of red ink! Of course, this is old news. The listing of this ship has become quite severe in the following 3 weeks and now it is clear to many, we need to get to those life boats as soon as possible! I am beginning to very strongly suspect that the hell hounds and pirates are all buying gold like mad right now because that is shooting up in price while many pre-crash pirate goodies are being dropped like green fuzzed hard tack rations at sea. If all were so good with Ambac, they wouldn't be facing degradation, would they?


Here is a later notification:

NEW YORK, October 24, 2007--Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced a third quarter 2007 net loss of ($360.6) million, or ($3.51) per diluted share. This compares to third quarter 2006 net income of $213.5 million, or net income per diluted share of $1.98. The decrease is due to the previously announced unrealized loss on credit derivative exposures amounting to ($743.4) million, or ($5.29) per diluted share in the third quarter 2007. The third quarter 2007 unrealized mark-to-market loss on credit derivative exposures was discussed in a press release dated October 10, 2007, and is primarily the result of unfavorable market pricing of collateralized debt obligations. As further described below, net mark-to-market losses on credit derivatives are excluded from the earnings measures used by research analysts.


OOPS. The water is a tad higher, isn't it? Of course, astute readers of the markets could have predicted these losses. I certainly expected this. But the need to not face reality is very strong. This is why half of the boats launched by the Titanic's captain were only half full. He really thought the ship was going to make it through the night above the deep blue sea.

Picture_3
Losses increased by nearly 100%. Um, that goes in the 'bad news' catagory. Naturally, all executives would rather tell us happy stories. This is true with everyone. People who give bad news all the time are not enjoyable to read which is why I joke all the time. How else does one deal with a stream of bad news? Normally, I would like to discuss things in a less unhappy strain but we are in interesting times, alas.


Ambac:

U.S. structured finance credit enhancement production increased from the prior year, driven by strong writings of student loan securitizations and utilities deals during the quarter. The structured finance markets experienced lower volumes during the quarter, impacted by the severe disruption caused by concern over subprime mortgages. However, interest in our financial guaranty product has increased, credit spreads have widened substantially across the structured finance arena, and pricing has generally improved. During the third quarter 2007, Ambac did not write any collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities (CDOs of ABS) or subprime residential mortgage-backed securities.
International credit enhancement production increased significantly driven by the large Eurotunnel transaction and several other significant transactions across a variety of geographic locations. During the quarter Ambac closed deals in seven different countries including three each in the U.K. and Australia.


Several things: Ambac, like many others, has totally abandoned the RMBC markets. No more housing loans from them! They won't back any CDOs in the ABS system. We might even dare call this the ABySs in the Deep Debt Seas. They will do student loans! Why is this?


Thank Congress. They made is impossible for anyone to get rid of student debts via bankruptcy. Indeed, the push to make ALL loans impossible to escape is very high on the 'to do' agenda of all the reckless lenders. Keeping people strung out on past debts for their entire lives is the way this game is played. As people go bankrupt, the need to make debts eternal, grows.


Ambac:

Case basis loss reserves (loss reserves for exposures that have defaulted) increased $59.8 million during the third quarter of 2007 from $47.3 million at June 30, 2007 to $107.1 million at September 30, 2007. The increased case reserves relate primarily to two RMBS transactions that are underperforming original expectations. Total net claim receipts during the quarter amounted to $3.7 million.


In just 3 months, their losses more than doubled! OUCH. Or rather, help! We are drowning in red ink! Indeed, all the insuring organizations we are visiting tonight saw similar numbers and all were due to the same banking system collapse in the West.


From MBIA's News Page:

Oct. 25, 2007--MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), the holding company for MBIA Insurance Corporation, today reported that net income per share for the first nine months of 2007 was $2.84, compared with $4.67 during the same period of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, net income was $373.8 million, down 41 percent compared with $638.3 million in the same period last year.
The decline was due to a pre-tax net loss of $352.4 million, or $1.80 per share, that the Company recorded in the third quarter on financial instruments at fair value ("marked-to-market") and foreign exchange. The loss was a consequence of wider spreads affecting the valuation of the Company's structured credit derivatives portfolio. Compared with the previous quarter, spreads widened significantly on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) collateral and on other asset-backed collateral in the Company's structured credit derivatives portfolio. The Company believes that the "mark-to-market" loss does not reflect material credit impairment.


Well, more red ink and more lies. They do tell the truth better than say, Citigroup or Goldman Sachs who are nonstop liars. But MBIA has the ritual reassurance that the 'mark-to-graveyard' trip to Davey Jone's locker deep in the sea isn't going to wreck their bottom line. Right! A few gallons of red ink won't hurt us, eh? Ask the Federal Government that spent the last 40 years sailing around the Red Sea!


Radian Group's News Page:

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) today reported a net loss of $704 million and a diluted net loss per share of $8.78 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007.
Picture_5
"The third quarter's results were disappointing but not unexpected given market conditions," said S.A. Ibrahim, Chief Executive Officer of Radian. "However, our book value is $42.86 per share and we are well positioned with our strong capital and liquidity position to weather the challenging credit cycle." Mr. Ibrahim added, "While mortgage insurance credit losses will continue to impact our results for the foreseeable future, I'm encouraged by the positive trends in mortgage insurance penetration and by the resiliency of our financial guaranty business."


Um, of all the sinking ships, this one is the most shocking. Ever since the Captain announced this as the sound of gurgling red ink drowned out his orchestra that was trying to distract the First Class Passengers, everyone slid into port side and some went overboard. Look at this!

Picture_6Since the Day of Doom, 7/17/7, this stock has collapsed from $67 a share to penny stock status at less than $10 today and next week, obviously, this poor ship will be done firing off roman candles, signalling Bernanke, they need to be saved. If just one week ago, the head of Radian thought these stocks were worth nearly $50...which wasn't true back then, it was near $20, he was pretty optimistic. I know these guys have to talk up their stocks but this sort of disconnect isn't wise. Everyone saw it was BS and took flight even faster than at the other companies we discussed earlier.


From the Telegraph:

Barclays shares fell by 7pc to a two-year low this morning on the back of rumours that it had been forced to seek emergency funding from the Bank of England.
According to the news wires, neither Barclays or the Bank of England wanted to comment on the speculation.
12:20 UPDATE: Barclays' external PR agency have just been on the phone, pointing out that the Bank of England has said it did not make any emergency loans to banks at its penalty rate yesterday.
“Barclays is rumoured to have gone to the Bank of England for some funding,” Mamoun Tazi, an analyst at MF Global Securities told Bloomberg. “My guess it that it's very unlikely, but never say never.”


Classic sign of a crash: rumors cause sudden lurches in the value of the stocks of even the most dignified, white haired, sober, oldster organizations and banks. The urge to panic rises. Everyone is wondering, did all the banks keep too little in reserves? Well...in the West, this goes without saying! All our systems are without reserves which I have complained loudly about. Our own Federal Reserve refuses to preseve our reserves! Meanwhile, many bankers in rival lands like Japan, Russia and China and now India and others are building magnificent, huge FOREX reserves. There is something very wrong with all this and it is plain as day: they are preparing us for a total collapse and want to FORCE US to NOT PASS OUR INFLATION TO THEM. These funds are now being changed into Sovereign Wealth Funds and they are buying up our systems so they can control our messy business. We seem unable to control this, ourselves.


Time to look at Citigroup who is also in the news today. From Times Online, just in, just a few minutes ago:

Meredith Whitney, the analyst who prompted a $369 billion (£177 billion) plunge in the value of US shares on Thursday by issuing a negative note on Citigroup, hit out at Wall Street’s culture of intimidation yesterday after receiving several death threats from investors in the bank.
Ms Whitney, a CIBC analyst who is married to the former World Wrestling Entertainment champion Death Mask, prompted a near 7 per cent drop in Citigroup’s shares on Thursday, after suggesting that the bank needed to raise more than $30 billion to restore its capital cushion.
She also downgraded her recommendation on Citigroup’s shares to “market underperform” in the note that set off America’s biggest stock market decline since August.


WHOA. Talk about 'blood in the streets'!!! And I love the fact that she is married to the Death Mask. This is so befitting. For anyone who can see what is going on has to have some connection with the Dark Realm, that bizarre place where I come from, where my Watchers live and where they love bad news and where money is created and is, of course, the home of Risky, herself. The Hell Cave. All of this is so amusing in a dark way.


Unlike Meredith and Death Mask, all I get is nasty letters from nasty lawyers representing nasty hell hounds and pirates on Elizabeth II's islands! No death threats yet! But then, few people listen to me. Poor Meredith Whitney, on the other hand, is on TV, etc. And now she gets what I have gotten in the past: death threats. Once, I was on TV talking about death threats and Captain Hill who eventually became the Captain in charge of all of Manhattan, was working with me. And he said, 'We will give you a bullet proof vest' and I said, 'You will wear it and take the bullets for me, right?'


Heh. He laughed at that one. But I have been shot at. The whiz sound of the bullet before it hits the wall behind the head can be unnerving. I hope no one blames Meredith. She is just telling the truth and the last thing speculators want to hear, is the truth. They want Benanke Santa Claus to helicopter money to them and give it to them! This really disgusts me. And her note about Citigroup didn't cause the markets to crash. They were crashing and she noticed the obvious. Geeze, I detailed here before the middle of August, the logic of this collapse, it was pretty obvious, and I even mentioned Citigroup more than once because I was amused at how the furious Saudis tried to stop the overspending there by the executives.


From the NYT:

Citigroup’s embattled chairman and chief executive has told senior officials at the bank that he expected to leave after an emergency board meeting this weekend, a banking industry official with ties to Citigroup said last night.
Charles O. Prince III, 57, had indicated that he expected to leave during this board meeting, this person said. Directors are also expected to discuss the possibility of another large write-off.
“The entire organization is in uproar and people have been looking for leadership,” said one Citigroup executive familiar with the situation. “The organization is waiting for something.”


Um, if anyone is going to have an unpleasant experience, Mr. Prince should consult books about the Saudi Royals. My parents knew them very well, very, very well. Unlike with the Chinese, they didn't let me live with the Saudis for obvious reasons. Heh. But that is in the past, when I was younger. In this case, the Saudis don't like to lose billions of dollars and they feel a personal grudge about this and they also will want to put some fear in other American hearts but can't use Bin Laden and his Group so they will use other means, there are many mercenaries willing to collect a fine fee and make it look like an accident.


Here is a story from when the beginning of the collapse happened, from Market Dispatches on 3/26/2007:

U.S. banking giant Citigroup (C, news, msgs) is getting ready to announce a restructuring plan that would involve up to 15,000 job cuts and a $1 billion-plus charge against earnings, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Citi is expected to make the plan public by April 16, when it reports first-quarter results. Shares were down 0.4% at $51.54 today.
The move would follow remarks last summer by Citigroup's biggest shareholder, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia, who said the company must take "Draconian" measures to cut expenses, the Journal reported.
Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince has faced increased pressure from all sides to reduce expenses and to boost the company's stock price. The company saw a 15% rise in operating expenses last year of $52 billion, double the 7% rise in revenue growth, the newspaper said.


The Prince showed his displeasure by making Prince sit on a small cushion at his feet like a dog. My father never allowed the Saudis to do this to him. Indeed, he even got in a quarrel with King Faisal over something that pissed off my mother and left the country suddenly. A while later, the King was assassinated. Hmmmm....No, my mom didn't do it, by the way. It is just, this is how they play the game there. This is why they have lots and lots of bodyguards. More than the Queen of England who also fears assassins and daughter-in-laws.


From Citigroup's News Page:

New York – Today Citi announced that it has reached a significant milestone in its “green” building program by earning a Gold Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification for the first time. The prestigious designation from the U.S. Green Building Council was awarded in a ceremony today at Citi’s newly constructed, 15-story skyscraper at Two Court Square, Queens, New York. The office tower, which opened in August, is home for 1,500 employees.


From Citigroup's news page:

Citi announced today that Citigroup Japan Holdings Ltd. and Nikko Cordial Corporation have signed a definitive share exchange agreement to reflect the final terms of the previously announced share exchange transaction in which Nikko Cordial will become a 100%-owned subsidiary of Citi.


From Citigroup's financial report:Income went from $16 billion down to $13 billion. Nonperforming assets [ie: dead ducks]: Corporate loans: $821 million in 2006 and in 2007, $1,218 million.

Real estate repros: $466 million in 2006, $942 million in 2007 [these go slower than loans to businesses].


So here we are: this article was from when the world stock markets dropped violently in February. And Meredith had absolutely nothing to do with this. It was due to the stinky condition of all those CDOs, etc. Citigroup moved into this spiffy new building, a huge structure in Queens, fancy headquarters right in the middle of this messy third quarter. Like Sears moving into the Sears Tower and then going bankrupt, so it is with Citigroup. If terrorists blow up this building, I won't be surprized. The Saudi Princes are pissed to hell that their money is tied up in it.


From Prison Planet:

The problem is that the "orderly decline" has now become a chaotic mess, as made evident by the fact that the Fed's indication that Wednesday's interest rate cut would be the last failed completely to rescue the ailing dollar which continues to hit record lows against the Euro today.
This proves that the dollar's depreciation has been too swift even for the Fed's liking, who are now desperately trying to prop up the greenback to no avail as it spins into the abyss.
The decision on behalf of the Saudis to drop their interest rates and maintain their dollar peg is another clue that the elite have lost control of the dollar's decline and are nervously attempting to halt the slide without success.


We hate China having a peg on the dollar but love it with the Saudis. And the Saudis hate this and they are trying to figure out how to deal with all this. Namely, they are talking with the Chinese. They want the US to protect them from the Iranians and let them be the nasty people they are at home. But they think that maybe the US is costing them dearly and they may suddenly drop us when China signals, it is time for a New World Order.


From Prudent Bear:

There’s a mystery on Wall Street. Merrill Lynch last week wrote off $8.4 billion in its subprime mortgage business, a figure revised up from $4.9 billion, yet Goldman Sachs reported an excellent quarter and didn’t feel the need for any write-offs. The real secret of the difference is likely to be in the details of their accounting, and in particular in the murky world, shortly to be revealed, of their “Level 3” asset portfolios.
*snip*
We may be about to find out. From November 15, we will have a new tool for figuring out how much toxic waste is in investment banks’ balance sheets. The new accounting rule SFAS157 requires banks to divide their tradable assets into three “levels” according to how easy it is to get a market price for them. Level 1 assets have quoted prices in active markets. At the other extreme Level 3 assets have only unobservable inputs to measure value and are thus valued by reference to the banks’ own models.


Level 3 is the same as Dante's lowest circles in Hell. Soon we will get a wave of really bad news and not one iota of it will be from the delightful Ms. Meredith! Preview: lucky for us, most windows in offices in Manhattan can't be opened. There are going to be lots of unhappy people who can't explain that all that lovely money made out of thin air by lenders is now gone, kaput, a total loss for all eternity. Like the houses that burned in California, these will be gone, gone, gone. Poof. Just 12 hours ago, I noted one news analyst who begged for no rules and more easy money. That will fix this mess, eh? More of the heroin that made these junky bonds and tranchey papers? Right. Don't Bogard that joint, my friend.


Wall Street Journal:

Goldman Sachs has disclosed its Level 3 assets, two quarters before it would be compelled to do so in the period ending February 29, 2008. Their total was $72 billion, which at first sight looks reasonable because it is only 8% of total assets. However the problem becomes more serious when you realize that $72 billion is twice Goldman’s capital of $36 billion. In an extreme situation therefore, Goldman’s entire existence rests on the value of its Level 3 assets.
*snip*
There has been no rush to disclose Level 3 assets in advance of the first quarter in which it becomes compulsory, probably that ending in February or March 2008. Figures that have been disclosed show Lehman with $22 billion in Level 3 assets, 100% of capital, Bear Stearns with $20 billion, 155% of capital and J.P. Morgan Chase with about $60 billion, 50% of capital. However those figures are almost certainly low; the border between Level 2 and Level 3 is a fuzzy one and it is unquestionably in the interest of banks to classify as many of their assets as possible as Level 2, where analysts won’t worry about them, rather than Level 3, where analyst concern is likely.


If everyone is playing with funny money, it vanishes. This is why one must play only with money that isn't owed to any Saudi Princes. Now I know these people running these organizations like Goldman Sachs think they can mail Sultan a letter saying, 'Sorry, but all your investments are now worthless.' And then go off to the Bahamas to play golf. Only there will be this irate sniper who has a grudge against Americans and bang. Or a mechanic toys with the private jet's landing gears or GPS computer. I suspect, this is what all that 'blood in the streets' are about. Then there are the Chinese: no slouches in this regard, either. Or Russians. Don't drink tea with a disgruntled Russian sent to pay a little visit. Use that geiger counter you can get from the Sharp Xmas catalogue.


From Bloomberg:

Merrill Lynch & Co. fell the most in six years, leading financial stocks lower for a second day, after Deutsche Bank AG said the world's biggest brokerage may write down an additional $10 billion for losses on subprime assets.
``We have increasingly lost confidence in the financials of Merrill,'' Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Mayo said in a report today. ``Merrill may have additional credit rating downgrades'' should the New York-based firm be forced to write down the value of its debt holdings, Mayo said.


The Germans hate losing money. Deutsche Bank has been badly burned this year. And the Germans have long memories of bank burns. They are quite herzliche upset over this. Merrill will be punished just like Citigroup will be punished. I don't know if the Germans will be as personal as the Saudis. Who knows? Maybe the Saudis will get mad at me, talking about this.


It is all speculation. But then, the US kidnaps people, tortures them, our new Attorney General will torture people, Bush is a criminal who should be impeached and put on trial at the Hague and Cheney should be chased by ducks and gummed to death in some swamp, I might think, not that I advocate any of these more violent actions, just arrest all of these people including a number of Goldman Sachs people in high places as well as our President and VP, etc. Just arrest them all.


A bonus: this will discourage WWIII and the looming attacks on Iran.


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Comments

"The employment numbers are pure fiction."

You have to read this article by Joe Richter of Bloomberg [excerpted below ] with regards to that fake news. You have to read it a couple of times and you will notice the absurdity and the contradiction of the numbers from one paragraph to the next within the article. I can't believe Joe wrote this with a straight face or at leaset he must've been laughing hysterically while doing so. I spent some time pouring over it and laughing myself while muttering, "F-ing lies".

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLkI_dVc5RL0&refer=economy

Posted by: Blunt Force Trauma | November 03, 2007 at 08:02 AM

Terrific blog cutting through the BS and telling it like it is.

Posted by: Crimson Ghost | November 03, 2007 at 08:43 AM

I love your name, Crimson Ghost.

Blunt Force Trauma, it is of course, all lies. All the major corportions are laying off masses of workers. So how is employment 'growing'?

Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 03, 2007 at 08:46 AM

........

I sincerely hope that doesn't happen to your 401k. I am very pro-savings. I wish we could simply save the old fashioned way. By putting money in an honest bank.

Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 03, 2007 at 12:01 PM

...........

Elaine, you should try mogulus.com. You can be safer blogging there.

Posted by: PJSV | November 03, 2007 at 01:15 PM

CK: you are in the front lines of the wild fires! I have invested in real estate all my life and gaging the waves is all part of this game. One must see into the future. Lately, this experiment with super-low interest rates to keep housing going is turning out to have very nasty side effects...which we knew all about way back in 1974!

PJSV: so far, typepad has been OK. They don't censor me like Blogspot did. Moving is very hard, very hard. I lose a lot of readers when this happens.

Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 03, 2007 at 07:12 PM

........


Excerpted from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLkI_dVc5RL0&refer=economy


U.S. Economy: Employment Growth Exceeds Forecasts (Update3)

By Joe Richter

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- American employers added almost twice as many jobs as forecast in October, countering speculation that the economy was on the verge of recession because of the deepening housing slump.

..........The report today by the Labor Department in Washington also showed that the unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent. The robust job market will enable the six-year expansion to continue into 2008.

............. Builders and factories eliminated jobs, the Labor Department said, while service industries such as restaurants and hotels increased hiring, as did the government.

..........

Exceeding Forecasts

Gault's team predicted payrolls would expand by 120,000........... The median forecast was for a gain of 85,000.

Estimates for unemployment ranged from 4.6 percent to 4.9 percent. The rate dropped to 4.4 percent in March, matching the October 2006 level as the lowest in five years.

Manufacturing payrolls decreased by 21,000 after falling 17,000 a month earlier. Economists had predicted a drop of 15,000 in manufacturing employment.

.......Chrysler LLC yesterday said it will cut as many as 11,000 more hourly and salaried jobs through next year. The third-largest U.S.-based automaker said the prospects for auto sales have deteriorated since announcing in February that it would cut 13,000 positions over three years.

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Builders Eliminate Positions

Payrolls at builders fell by 5,000 after dropping 14,000 a month earlier. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 190,000 workers last month after gaining 127,000 jobs in September.

Retailers cut 21,500 positions. It's too soon to say the drop in hiring means chain stores are anticipating a weaker holiday season, some economists said. Retail employment figures are volatile ahead of the shopping period,..........

Government payrolls expanded by 36,000 during the month after rising 23,000 in September.

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Wages rose less than forecast, suggesting compensation may provide less of a cushion against declining home values in coming months..........

Work Week

Average weekly hours worked by production workers held at 33.8. Average weekly earnings rose to $594.20 last month from $593.19 the prior month.

In contrast to the payrolls figures, a separate household survey showed a loss of jobs. The unemployment rate held steady because about 200,000 people left the workforce.

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``It's pretty clear that, outside of housing, the economy is still pretty healthy,'' .......

Cooling Expansion

The economy will probably expand at a 1.8 percent pace this quarter, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists last month, less than half the third quarter's 3.9 percent rate.

Economists project the jobless rate will rise in coming months as slower growth forces more businesses to reduce staff. Unemployment will probably increase to 5 percent by the second half of next year, the survey showed.

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To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Richter in Washington Jrichter1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 2, 2007 17:40 EDT